Property Deep Dive Analysis

Comprehensive investment analysis powered by real data

BAY AREA VALUE PLAY

111 Mahogany Dr, Vallejo, CA

Purchase Price
$895,000
Price/Unit
$149,167
Cap Rate
9.1%
Units
4 x 1BR + 2 Studios
Occupancy
83% (1 vacant)
Expense Ratio
23%
🏆 SCORE: 8/10 - STRONG BUY
Bay Area Value Play: 9.1% cap rate (rare for Bay Area!) + Section-8 stability + immediate vacancy fill opportunity + Ferry to SF access = Excellent cash-flowing multifamily under $150k/unit.

Year 1 Performance

Cash Needed (25% down)
$250,600
Annual Cash Flow
$29,406
Monthly Cash Flow
$2,451
CoC Return
11.7%
NOI
$81,651
Debt Coverage Ratio
1.56x
With Vacancy Filled: Cash flow jumps to $42,000+/year ($3,500/month) = 16.8% CoC!

Unit Mix & Current Status

Unit Type Count Status Income Type
1-Bedroom 4 units 3 occupied, 1 vacant Mix of Section-8 & market
Studio 2 units Both occupied Market rate
Total 6 units 83% occupancy 2 Section-8, 3 market
Current Rent Roll: $9,300/month total ($111,600/year) with 1 vacant unit. Average $1,860/unit for occupied units.

Value-Add Strategies

Strategy 1: Fill Vacancy
+$13,200/year
Light Cosmetic Update
$5-8k cost
Rent at $1,100/month
+40% CF boost
Strategy 2: Unit Renovations (Non-Section-8)
  • Studios ($5-8k each)$150-250/mo increase
  • 1BR units ($8-12k each)$150-250/mo increase
  • Focus on non-Section-8Faster ROI
Strategy 3: Section-8 Rent Escalation

Section-8 adjusts with FMR (Fair Market Rents). Vallejo FMRs have increased 3-5% annually. 2 units locked in = stable base income with automatic increases.

Strategy 4: Expense Optimization

23% expense ratio is already excellent. Implement RUBS if not done. Property tax appeal if assessed high. Already operating efficiently!

Hold Scenarios - Wealth Building Path

Hold Period Total Cash Flow Equity Buildup Total Profit ROI
5-Year $173,663 $41,213 $316,492 126%
10-Year $420,377 $119,053 $842,524 336%
20-Year $1,183,077 $291,855 $2,396,705 956%
20-Year Hold: 10X your initial investment! $2.4M total return on $250k invested.

Location Advantages

✅ Strategic Vallejo Position

Ferry to San Francisco

Major amenity for Bay Area commuters

Near I-80

Easy access to entire Bay Area

Mare Island Revitalization

Breweries, trails, waterfront district

Ample On-Site Parking

Competitive advantage

✅ Investment Strengths

9.1% Cap Rate

Rare for Bay Area!

11.7% CoC (16.8% filled)

Excellent returns

23% Expense Ratio

Very efficient operations

1.56 Debt Coverage

Strong safety margin

Section-8 Stability

Guaranteed income on 2 units

Risk Analysis

⚠️ Concerns

One Vacant Unit

Immediate loss of income

Section-8 on 33% of Units

Slower rent growth potential

Small Unit Sizes

Studios have rent ceiling limitations

Vallejo Market

Bay Area "value" play, not premium

✅ Mitigations

Fill Vacancy ASAP

Instant $2k/month boost

Section-8 = Stability

Guaranteed payments, auto FMR increases

Low 23% Expense Ratio

Excellent buffer for surprises

1.56x Debt Coverage

Strong safety margin, refi flexibility

Ferry Access

Demand won't fade, permanent amenity

Offer Strategy

Offer Cash to Close Justification Verdict
$875,000 $245,600 Vacancy loss + CapEx needs Try this first
$895,000 (asking) $250,600 9.1% cap + upside justifies it PAY IT if needed
Bottom Line: Offer $875k to save $5k (use for vacancy fix), but if seller won't budge, PAY ASKING. The 9.1% cap rate + vacancy fill upside justifies full price!

🏆 STRONG BUY - BAY AREA VALUE

This is a cash-flowing Bay Area multifamily under $150k/unit!

• $250,600 cash → $29,406/year ($2,451/month) with vacancy

• Fill vacancy → $42,000/year ($3,500/month) = 16.8% CoC

• 9.1% cap rate (rare for Bay Area)

• Section-8 stability + market upside

• Ferry to SF = permanent demand driver

• 10-year hold: $842k total profit

Perfect for: Bay Area investor seeking cash flow + appreciation, comfortable with Section-8, first-time commercial buyer.

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🎯 INFINITE RETURNS - TEXTBOOK BRRRR

5437 Brooklyn Ave, Kansas City, MO

Purchase Price
$65,000
Rehab Budget
$57,750
ARV
$185,000
Size
1,268 sqft
Configuration
3bed/1bath
Cap Rate
18.3%
🎯 SCORE: 9/10 - INFINITE RETURNS!

🎯 YOU GET PAID $1,963 TO OWN THIS!

This is textbook BRRRR: Buy at $65k, rehab for $58k, refi at $185k ARV, pull out ALL your capital + $1,963 profit, keep property cash-flowing $86/month with ZERO dollars left in the deal = INFINITE CoC return!

The BRRRR Breakdown

Phase 1: Purchase & Rehab (6 months)
  • Hard Money Loan (85% + 100% rehab)$113,000 @ 10.45%
  • Down Payment (15%)$9,750
  • Closing Costs$1,950
  • Holding Costs (6 months)$6,537
  • Total Cash In$11,700
Phase 2: Refinance - THE MAGIC!
  • New Loan (75% LTV on $185k ARV)$138,750 @ 6.8%
  • Pays Off Hard Money-$113,000
  • Pays Off Holding Costs-$6,537
  • Refi Costs-$5,550
  • Cash Out to You$13,663

💰 NET CASH INVESTED: -$1,963

You pocket $1,963 PROFIT and own a cash-flowing rental with $0 left in the deal!

Post-Refinance Cash Flow

Year 1 Monthly Rent
$1,290
Operating Expenses (19%)
-$234/month
Loan Payment
-$905/month
Monthly Cash Flow
$86/month
Annual Cash Flow
$1,032/year
CoC Return
INFINITY% ∞

Long-Term Wealth Building

Year Annual Cash Flow Equity Property Value
1 $1,032 $56,000 $192,400
5 $5,193 $100,000 $225,000
10 $8,383 $169,000 $275,000
30 $30,000/year $668,000 Free & clear!
Year 30: Property is free & clear, generating $30k/year in pure passive income with ZERO dollars invested. This is wealth building!

Key Metrics - Why This Works

Forced Equity
$120,000
Cash Out at Refi
+$1,963
Net Money Left In
$0
Immediate Cash Flow
$86/month
  • Huge Spread$65k buy → $185k ARV
  • Perfect 75% LTV RefiPulls out all capital + profit
  • Low Expenses (19%)Strong CF even with mortgage
  • KC Rent Support$1,290/month easily achievable
  • True BRRRR Wealth Building∞ INFINITE RETURN

Risk Management

⚠️ Risks to Manage

Rehab Overruns

$57k is aggressive - monitor closely

ARV Validation

Hire local realtor to confirm $185k ARV

Neighborhood (64130 Zip)

Crime concerns - vet tenants carefully

Rent Assumption

Verify $1,290/month is achievable post-rehab

✅ Why This Still Works

$120k Forced Equity

Huge cushion for surprises

Get Paid to Own It

$1,963 profit at refi even if tight

Kansas City Market

Landlord-friendly, strong rental demand

Section-8 Option

Guaranteed income if needed

Action Plan - 6 Month Timeline

  1. Due Diligence (Week 1-2)Inspector, validate $57k budget
  2. Lock Financing (Week 2-3)Secure hard money at 10.45%
  3. Close & Renovate (Month 1-5)Monitor budget religiously
  4. Rent Property (Month 5-6)List at $1,290/month
  5. Refinance (Month 6)75% LTV, pull all capital out
  6. Repeat!Use $13,663 for next BRRRR

🎯 TEXTBOOK BRRRR - DO IT!

This is near-perfect BRRRR with infinite return potential!

• Cash Required: $11,700 initially

• Cash Out at Refi: $13,663

Net Profit: +$1,963

• Ongoing Cash Flow: $86/month (grows to $2,500+/month Year 30)

• Forced Equity: $120,000

• CoC Return: INFINITY% ∞

Get ALL your money back, own cash-flowing asset, rinse and repeat. This is wealth building!

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HISTORIC HOME BRRRR - BIG SPREAD

917 Benton Blvd, Kansas City, MO

Purchase Price
$77,000
Rehab Budget
$81,070
ARV
$250,000
Size
2,804 sqft
Configuration
5bed/3bath
Year Built
1900
SCORE: 8.5/10 ✅ STRONG BUY - WITH EXECUTION RISK
The Opportunity: Huge value-add spread ($77k → $250k ARV), get paid $11k+ to own it after refi, 3-story Victorian near World Cup 2026 venues. BUT rehab budget is TIGHT - expect $95k realistic cost!

⚠️ CRITICAL: REHAB BUDGET WARNING

Your budget: $81,070 | Contractor analysis: $95,000 recommended

This is a 125-year-old 3-story Victorian. The $81k budget is AGGRESSIVE. Expect surprises. Budget $95k minimum and have $15k contingency reserve ready.

The BRRRR Breakdown

Phase 1: Purchase & Rehab (6 months)
  • Hard Money Loan$146,520 @ 10.45%
  • Down Payment (15%)$11,550
  • Closing Costs$2,310
  • Holding Costs (6 months)$8,466
  • Total Cash In$13,860
Phase 2: Refinance
  • New Loan (75% LTV on $250k)$187,500 @ 6.8%
  • Pays Off Hard Money-$146,520
  • Pays Off Holding-$8,466
  • Refi Costs-$7,500
  • Cash Out to You$25,014

💰 NET RESULT: -$11,154

You pocket $11,154 profit and own the property with $0 left in the deal!

Post-Refinance Performance

Year 1 Monthly Rent
$1,950
Operating Expenses (17.8%)
-$330/month
Loan Payment
-$1,222/month
Monthly Cash Flow
$300/month
Annual Cash Flow
$3,604/year
CoC Return
INFINITY% ∞

Key Metrics

Cap Rate (on purchase)
23.7%
Forced Equity
$91,930
Cash Back at Refi
$11,154

⚠️ REHAB BUDGET IS TIGHT: Your $81,070 vs recommended $95,000 = $14k shortfall risk. This is a 1900 3-story home - unknowns are REAL. Have contingency ready!

ARV Validation - Conservative but Safe

Address Beds/Bath Sqft Sale Date Price
3926 Norledge 5BR/2.5BA ~2,800 Jan 2026 $320,000
1228 Olive St 5BR/3BA ~2,800 Jan 2026 $365,000
3242 Roberts 5BR/3BA ~2,600 Jan 2026 $280,000
Your ARV 5BR/3BA 2,804 $250,000
Your $250k ARV = Bottom 25% of comps - This is safe and conservative! Recent comps range $280k-$365k. Built-in safety margin.

Long-Term Projection

Year Cash Flow Equity
1 $3,604 $62,500
5 $9,581 $135,000
10 $14,441 $228,000
30 $47,000 Free & clear!

Critical Analysis

✅ Strengths

Huge Value-Add Spread

$77k → $250k ARV = $173k gain

Get Paid $11k to Own It

After refi, you pocket profit

Historic Home

Character, emerging area, World Cup 2026

Low Operating Expenses

17.8% expense ratio excellent

Strong Rent Potential

Fully rehabbed 5BR/3BA = premium

⚠️ Concerns

REHAB BUDGET TIGHT

$81k vs $95k recommended = $14k risk

1900 3-Story Home

125 years old - unknowns are REAL

Rent Assumption Optimistic

$1,950/mo vs comps $1,295-1,800

ARV Must Hold

If appraisal under $240k, kills 75% LTV

Deal Killers to Watch

❌ What Could Kill This Deal

  1. Rehab overruns beyond $95k - kills the refi
  2. ARV appraisal under $240k - kills 75% LTV
  3. Can't rent for $1,700+ - kills cash flow

✅ STRONG BUY - IF EXPERIENCED

This is a HOME RUN BRRRR *if* you can keep rehab at/under $85k!

• Cash In: $13,860

• Cash Out: $25,014

Net Profit: +$11,154

• Monthly CF: $300/month (infinite return)

• Forced Equity: $91,930

Perfect for: Experienced rehabber, has $15-20k contingency buffer, can manage KC contractor, long-term wealth builder.

Warning: That $81k rehab budget on a 125-year-old 3-story Victorian is AGGRESSIVE. Expect surprises. Budget $95k minimum. If this is your first BRRRR, the rehab complexity might eat your margins.

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TURNKEY - APPRECIATION PLAY

AVA Apartments - 415 S 10th St, Las Vegas, NV

Purchase Price
$3,299,999
Price/Unit
$206,250
Cap Rate
6.9%
Units
16 x 1BR/1BA
Occupancy
100%
Condition
Fully Renovated
SCORE: 6.5/10 ⚠️ CONDITIONAL PASS - LOW COC

⚠️ THE LOW CoC PROBLEM

$1,089,000 down payment for only 4.1% CoC return!

This is a bet on appreciation, not cash flow. High-yield savings accounts pay 4-5% risk-free. You're sacrificing yield for stability and location.

Year 1 Performance

Cash Needed (30% down)
$1,089,000
Annual Cash Flow
$44,105
Monthly Cash Flow
$3,675
CoC Return
4.1%
Expense Ratio
13.6%
Debt Coverage
1.24x

Property Details

  • LocationDowntown LV (Fremont & Arts District)
  • Unit MixAll 1BR/1BA ($1,450/unit)
  • Gross Monthly Rent$23,200 ($278,400/year)
  • Operating Expenses$35,953 (13.6% - incredible!)
  • NOI$228,527

Comparison to High-CoC Deals

Property Down Payment Y1 CoC Score Type
Santa Rosa 7-Unit $224k 19.5% 9.5/10 Value-add
Vallejo 6-Unit $251k 11.7% 8/10 Bay Area
KC 6-Unit (39th St) $185k 8.1% 9/10 Location
Vegas 16-Unit $1,089k 4.1% 6.5/10 Turnkey

Opportunity Cost: You're paying 2-5X more capital for 1/2 to 1/5 the returns. This massive capital commitment better pay off in appreciation!

What $1.089M Could Buy Instead

With $1.089M, you could buy:
  • Option A: This Vegas 16-unit4.1% CoC, $44k/year
  • Option B: 4-5 Kansas City Value-Adds24-28 units, $100k+/year, 10-15% CoC
  • Option C: 1 Large Value-Add (30-50 units)7-10% CoC → 12-15% post-reposition

Long-Term Projection

Year Annual CF Equity
1 $44,105 $1,089,000
5 $73,000 $1,840,000
10 $115,000 $2,900,000
20 $219,000 $5,900,000

What You DO Get

✅ Strengths

Turnkey Asset

No deferred maintenance, fully renovated

Downtown Vegas Momentum

Fremont St renaissance, Arts District growth

13.6% Expense Ratio

One of lowest I've seen - incredible efficiency

Durable Demand

1BR in urban core = always rentable

Off-Street Parking

Major competitive advantage downtown

Gated & Secure

Remote access, safe for tenants

❌ Fatal Flaws

LOW Year 1 CoC (4.1%)

Barely beats high-yield savings accounts

MASSIVE Capital ($1.089M)

All eggs in one basket, huge opportunity cost

High Purchase Price

$206k/unit = top of market, no value-add

Tight Break-Even (79.2%)

One bad year kills cash flow

No Value-Add Play

Can't raise rents, can't cut expenses, locked into 3% growth

Who Should Buy This

✅ Perfect For

High Net Worth

Have $1M+ liquid capital available

Stability Seekers

Want low-maintenance asset

Appreciation Believers

Betting on Vegas downtown 5-10 year growth

Portfolio Diversification

Already have high-cash-flow properties

❌ Not For

First-Time Buyers

Too much capital at risk

High-CoC Seekers

Need 8-12% returns, not 4.1%

Limited Liquidity

Can't tie up $1M+ in one asset

Value-Add Operators

Prefer BRRRR strategies, not turnkey

⚠️ CONDITIONAL PASS - "RICH DAD" INVESTMENT

This is a defensive portfolio play, not an aggressive wealth builder.

• Cash Required: $1,089,000 (massive!)

• Year 1 Cash Flow: $3,675/month (4.1% CoC)

• Appreciation Play: Strong (downtown revitalization)

• Cash Flow Play: Weak (barely beats inflation)

Perfect for: High net worth investor with $1M+ liquid, looking for stable low-maintenance asset, betting on Vegas downtown appreciation (5-10 year hold), has other high-cash-flow properties to balance portfolio.

Pass if: First-time commercial buyer, need strong Year 1 cash flow, limited liquidity, prefer value-add/BRRRR strategies, want 8-12% CoC returns.

Verdict: If you're building wealth aggressively, this $1.089M is better deployed into 3-4 BRRRR deals that cash flow 2-3x better. But if you want stability and are betting on appreciation, this is defensible.

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